The PC business can’t climb out of the four-year hole it’s dug for itself, researcher IDC said today.

Shipments of new personal computers will drop 10% in the fourth quarter — which is two-thirds over — IDC announced Monday, meaning that for all of 2015, shipments will have declined by 10.3% from 2014. The firm now expects all OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) to ship 276.7 million PCs this year, off the 308.2 million in 2014.

If IDC’s forecast is accurate, it would represent the largest one-year contraction of the PC industry since the research firm began tracking shipments in 1996, “besting” the 9.1% record decline of 2013.

IDC blamed the latest shrinkage in shipments on a variety of factors, ranging from the strong dollar to larger-than-expected OEMs’ and sellers’ inventories, for the ongoing problem getting systems off factory floors.

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